After the ups and downs and fun and frolics of UFC Dublin last week it’s back to real life this weekend as the UFC visits its South American stronghold of Brazil for another fight night event. On this occasion the card is relatively strong and has some name commodities on show inside the Ginásio do Ibirapuera Arena in São Paulo.
Main Event – Vitor Belfort vs. Dan Henderson
The two most notable of those names just so happen to top the card as former PRIDE and Strikeforce champion Dan Henderson collides with former UFC champion Vitor Belfort for the third time. On the first two occasions the wins were split down the middle with Henderson winning a decision in 2006 and Belfort getting the knockout in 2013. Plenty, though, has changed since those bouts as 45 year-old Henderson and 38 year-old Belfort are no longer allowed to use testosterone replacement therapy (which was legal at the time of their last outing) and are carrying additional miles on the clock to boot.
As two men with almost eighty career fights between them it might be a weird thing to say that we don’t know exactly how they will look, or try to fight, on Saturday night but it kind of is that way. In his last fight against Chris Weidman, Vitor Belfort (without the use of TRT for the first time in recent years) looked a shell of his former self while Dan Henderson, with the half century mark of his life less than quarter of a Sage Northcutt away, knocked out Tim Boetsch to get back to winnings ways following a 1-5 slump.
Can Vitor rebound? Can Hendo keep it going? Let’s be honest, your guess is as good as mine. That guess of mine, though, is a Henderson win. Like against Weidman, I think Vitor will come out strong for the first minute and then wilt if he doesn’t get the knockout. For Henderson he is used to biding his time, kicking a bit and whipping in his right hand when he feels it’s right. If one of those lands, which I think it will, it’s night-night Vitor Belfort. Otherwise, we could be in for a long one.
Pick – Henderson
Co-Main Event – Glover Texeira vs. Pat Cummins
For a fight night event the week before a pay-per-view card this light-heavyweight meeting of Glover Texeira and Patrick Cummins may not exactly be drawing in the casuals but for the hardcore audience it’s a very intriguing match-up of two men who are attempting to re-establish themselves as elite players in the division.
With a win over Ovince St-Preux last time out, Texeira, a former 205 lbs title challenger (when he was easily beaten by Jon Jones), is working his way back to form currently following that championship loss and a subsequent defeat at the hands of current Bellator light-heavyweight number one contender Phil Davis. Cummins, on the other hand, is still working at having people not remember him as the coffee shop worker who took a fight on hours notice and got knocked out by Daniel Cormier. And, despite a setback loss to the aforementioned OSP, he has done that fairly well with wins over the likes of Kyle Kingsbury and Rafael Feijao although Saturday is by far his toughest test yet.
The intriguing factor for me, and many others, here is the wrestling battle. Cummins, a former US national team wrestler, has made grappling a huge part of his MMA career but will face a very tough test against Texeira who is, for my money at least, one of the best wrestlers in MMA today who didn’t come up learning that art.
Sometimes in MMA it can come down to one simple battle like that. Whoever can win that wrestling battle here will win the fight. For Cummins, he will need to dominate takedowns, clinch and control on the ground while Glover will need to stop him and either do those things himself or make it a striking match where he has a big advantage. For me, Glover wins enough wrestling battles and does enough damage to get the stoppage.
Pick – Texeira
Miscellaneous Ramblings
Although the top two fights are the main course there are plenty of appetizers, and maybe some dessert, also laying around. On the undercard powerhouses Abel Trujillo and Gleison Tibau clash in what should be a titanic battle, Fabio Maldonado is back in action against Beastin’ 25/8 and Brazilian Cowboy Alex Oliveira fights Piotr Hallman, but the most tasty of all is undoubtedly the fight between Brazilian Thomas Almeida and American Anthony Birchak.
At 20-0 in MMA, Almeida is probably the best prospect in the UFC today and, in a relatively light bantamweight division, will be looking to move his way towards the top in his fourth UFC fight against Birchak, a man who has only been to a decision twice in fourteen fights. This one, like all Almeida fights, should be all-action from moment one. Don’t blink.
FULL PREDICTIONS
Vitor Belfort vs. Dan Henderson – Hendo quells the storm, KOs Vitor
Glover Teixeira vs. Patrick Cummins – Glover stay off of his back enough, gets the finish
Thomas Almeida vs. Anthony Birchak – Exciting fight, Almeida gets the finish
Alex Oliveira vs. Piotr Hallmann – Brazilian Cowboy wins the decision
Gilbert Burns vs. Rashid Magomedov – Decision win keeps Burns undefeated
Fabio Maldonado vs. Corey Anderson – Beastin‘ puts Fab on his back and holds him there
Gleison Tibau vs. Abel Trujillo – Tight decision, I’ll go Trujillo
Yan Cabral vs. Johnny Case – Cabral submission
Clay Guida vs. Thiago Tavares – Guida grinds out a points win
Kevin Souza vs. Chas Skelly – Skelly wins a decision
Viscardi Andrade vs. Gasan Umalatov – Andrade on points
Pedro Munhoz vs. Jimmie Rivera – Rivera decision
Bruno Rodrigues vs. Matheus Nicolau Pereira – I’ll go with the experience, Pereira
BET OF THE WEEK
This week I’m going with a 15/2 four-way of Henderson, Oliveira, Glover and Almeida
START TIMES
Early Prelims – 11.30pm on UFC Fight Pass
Prelims – 1am on BT Sport 2 HD
Main Card – 3am on BT Sport 2 HD
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