Studying the Octagon: Proof that a smaller Octagon means more finishes

Source: Fightnomics

In December of 2010, Anthony “Showtime” Pettis leapt off the wall of a cage and landed a kick to Benson Henderson’s face. The spectacular “wall walk kick” put an exclamation point on the the waning moments of the final fight of the World Extreme Cagefighting organization. The folding of the bantam, feather and lightweight fighters into the UFC came with a bang. But while Zuffa had owned the WEC for years prior, and management had already implemented operational practices from the UFC, most fans may not know about one key difference that the WEC fighters would face.

The biggest questions at the time of the merger focused on whether smaller fighters would be enough of a draw to warrant airtime on MMA’s biggest stage. Stars like Urijah Faber and Jose Aldo certainly could put on a show and held strong followings, and the WEC’s highlight reel boasted amazing fight ending knockouts and submissions, all taking place in the vivid, electric blue WEC cage. But despite having fewer marquis stars, the greater threat to the smaller weight classes was the new, full-size UFC Octagon. In the WEC, fighters competed in a 25-foot diameter cage. At 30-feet across, the full size UFC Octagon may not seem quite so huge with only a 20% bigger diameter, but that translates into a cavernous 44% increase in Octagon area. That makes the cage in the WEC pretty tight quarters by comparison.

So let’s settle this once and for all. What has been the effect of adding smaller weight classes to the UFC?

(Cage) Size Matters

Finish rates in the UFC are an inherently scrutinized statistic. People want to see fights finished, and the UFC wants exciting ends to fights for the fans, and highlights for future promos. But the most important variable affecting finish rates is the size of the fighters.

Data provided by Fight Metric, analysis by Reed Kuhn

It’s pretty clear that the bigger the fighter, the more fights they finish. This is true across the board in the UFC. Another definite trend is that the mix of finishes changes from predominantly submissions, to mostly knockouts with increasing size. But this is due to the physics of muscles and striking, not the “heart” or skill sets of the fighters. Accounting for the fact that smaller fighters finish less often, did moving into a larger cage have any effect on how these fighters perform? Wouldn’t smaller cages force competitors to press the action – resulting in more finishes – with bigger cages allowing more room to roam and therefore fewer exchanges?

Fortunately, we have a great way to test this hypothesis. Before the WEC-UFC merger, several weight classes operated in parallel, which meant two different cage sizes under the same ownership. They also kept Sean Shelby as the matchmaker for the lighter weight classes, so this too was consistent before and after the merger. Furthermore, the UFC still uses a smaller cage for The Ultimate Fighter (TUF) show and Finale events that is closer to the WEC cage in size (i.e., smaller than the regular UFC full-sized Octagon). This is due to the tighter quarters of the TUF gym and the Palms Casino where TUF Finale events are held. So let’s looks at finish rates in those three scenarios, all while controlling for fighter size.

The results show that finish rates are higher in smaller cages, and this is true for all the weight classes where we have good data. The spike for the Bantamweights is due to the small sample size of bantamweight fighters competing in TUF Finale events, because there have only been 15 shows of those since the merger, with seven Bantamweights fights (all finishes). But even more conclusively, we see higher finish rates in allweight classes in the smaller cages of the WEC and TUF events, including the lightweight and welterweights, who have been around longer and have more total fights to examine.

When put into a smaller cage, even larger UFC weight classes (welterweight and above) finish more fights. They also throw over 20% more strikes per minute than when they are in the full size Octagon. Same rules, same division, same matchmaker…just more action. The idea is confirmed: smaller cages result in more finishes.

By Reed, @Fightnomics

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