Tonight begins a triumvirate of UFC events over the next seven days, and is the first in a series of Wednesday fight nights to be broadcast on the fledgling Fox Sports 1 channel. While Henderson and Pettis may be the more anticipated rematch this week, the welterweight sequel that headlines tonight at the Bankers Life Fieldhouse in Indianapolis, is a mouth-watering prospect, the outcome of which could decide who will be the next No.1 contender.
Condit v Kampmann
Carlos Condit, on his first two-fight losing streak since joining the UFC, faces Martin Kampmann, who handed him his first promotional defeat, when making his debut on UFC Fight Night 18 back in 2009. On that night Kampmann won by a razor-thin split decision and in the following years their careers have taken very different trajectories. Condit would go on a five-fight run that culminated in winning the interim welterweight title before losing the unification match to GSP. Kampman’s fortunes have been mixed, and the loss in his last bout to Jonny Hendricks, ended a three fight purple patch. With Jake Ellenberger losing to Rory McDonald, and the latter strident about his unwillingness to fight the champion, tonight’s winner could be next in line for a crack at the winner of GSP and Hendricks.
Both Kampmann and Condit lost their last fights to Hendricks, but in a very different fashion. Kampmann was KO’d in what resembled a scene from the Matrix, while Condit took ‘Big Rig’ to a decision after a three round war, which ultimately came down to takedowns as supposed a compelling victory. Stylistically little separates the two-both are technically sound kick-boxers, more than competent on the ground and unfazed by the sight of their own blood. Condit shades it in terms of raw power, but as Kampmann showed against Alves and Ellenberger, if he’s still conscious, he’s a threat.
My Prediction: Condit by unanimous decision.
Donald Cerrone v Rafael dos Anjos
In the co-main event Donald Cerrone, like Condit, a product of the Jackson/Winkeljohn programm, takes on Rafael dos Anjos, unbeaten in his last four fights. Cerrone has been one of the busiest fighters on the roster since coming over from the WEC in 2011, fighting nine times and only losing twice. ‘Cowboy’ is not the ideal proposition for a grappling-based fighter like dos Anjos; his vicious leg-kicks, in addition to impeding the spring required for takedowns, keeps opponents at a kick-boxing range; his takedown defence ratio is over 60% and, even if you manage to get him on the mat, Cerrone is a killer off his back, with 13 career wins by submission, with almost half of those coming via triangle. Dos Anjos is a national BJJ champion in his native Brazil, but his striking is markedly inferior to Cerrone’s, and that should prove telling.
My Prediction: Cerrone by KO/TKO in round 2
Kelvin Gastelum v Brian Melancon
Having dropped to welterweight, the undefeated Kelvin Gastelum makes his first UFC appearance since winning TUF 17, against Brian Melancon. Gastelum, as he showed against Urijah Hall, is a capable all-round grappler and a relentless competitor, if a little on the unspectacular side. Melancon, 31, is a decade older than his opponent, has one previous fight under the UFC banner, a KO win over Seth Baczynski at UFC 162, since his arrival from Strikeforce, where he amassed an impressive 5-1 record. Physically, there is little between the two and this could end up a drawn out, war of attrition, where whoever is the better shape prevails.
My Prediction: Gastelum by split decision
Court McGee v Robert Whittaker
The TUF theme continues with two former winners Court McGee and Robert Whittaker squaring off at 170lbs. McGee will be fighting for a second time in the weight class since dropping from middleweight, after earning a decision win over Josh Neer in his first. Whittaker, since winning the Smashes, KO’d another TUF winner, Colton Smith, at UFC 160. McGee wins this for a number of reasons. Firstly, the guy was big for middleweight, never mind a welterweight, and although not earth-shattering in any particular area, he’s well versed across the board and has far more experience fighting at this level.
My Prediction: McGee by unanimous decision
Takeya Mizugaki v Erik Perez
In the Bantamweight division, Japan’s Takeya Mizugaki and Mexico’s Erik Perez, will both be looking for an impressive win to get their names into the top ten of the rankings. Perez has finished all three of his UFC fights , with a mix of KO, TKO and submission. All but one of Mizugaki’s four UFC wins have come by decision, as have both his losses, signalling that he does not have the Mexican’s killer instinct, and in an age where leaving matters in the judges hands is not recommended, may prove his downfall.
My Prediction: Perez by TKO in round 1
Brad Tavares v Bubba McDaniel
The main card opens with more TUF alumni; season 11 semi-finalist Brad Tavares, beaten coincidentally by Court McGee , and Team Jackson’s Bubba McDaniel from season 17. During his stay in the house McDaniel was always quick to extol his virtues to anyone who would listen and there probably wasn’t too many tears shed when Urijah Hall knocked him out in the quarter final. He comes up against a fighter in Tavares, who has had a respectable career in the UFC to date, with a 5-1 record. Again, this comes down to experience and the level of competition faced. The Hawaiian takes it.
My Prediction: Tavares by TKO in round 3
UFC Fight Night 27 is available starting on Facebook at 9.30pm BST, and continuing at 11pm BST on BT Sport 1 in Ireland and UK.
By Tom Rooney – @oldmanrooney
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