UFC 166: The end of a rivalry, or just the beginning?

When it comes to combat sports no event conjures close to the same furore or anticipation than that of heavyweight title fight. The sight of two colossal men at the apex of their hazardous profession in the throes of an epic struggle for physical supremacy, has gripped public imagination for centuries. It’s quite simple really; the prestige of being both the biggest and best is unparalleled.

Tomorrow night at the Toyota Centre in Houston, Texas, Cain Velasquez and Junior dos Santos will conclude a trilogy which has violently played out over the last two years. It stands at one a piece, leading many to believe that whoever emerges victorious in this most historical of rubber matches, is the better man. Chances are though, the saga is far from over.

Because of the lob-sided nature of the first two title fights between Velasquez and Dos Santos, opinions about who the better fighter is and who is most likely to come out on top tomorrow night were bound to be polarising. For some, Junior rendering Velasquez unconscious in 64 seconds thanks to a devastating overhand right on the inaugural Fox Sports 1 broadcast, was utterly conclusive.

Conversely, others maintain that Velasquez’s five round dismantling of Dos Santos at UFC 155 proved beyond reasonable doubt that the champion is unquestionably superior. The argument has so many variables that reaching a satisfactory end could be near impossible. Let’s try, anyway.

When they first locked horns, Velasquez, thanks to a shoulder injury, had not fought since usurping Brock Lesnar over a year previously, while Dos Santos had beaten Shane Carwin just four months before hand at UFC 131. During the brief duration of the bout there is no doubt Cain did not look like the same guy who had destroyed Lesnar, and was tentative almost to the point of being lethargic- Dos Santos punished him accordingly.

In the aftermath AKA suggested that Cain was carrying a knee injury prior to the fight but, to his credit, Velasquez attributed the loss to his inability to follow a pressure-based game plan. Dos Santos would go on to defend his title against Frank Mir, while Velasquez earned his re-match by stopping Bigfoot Silva.

Unlike the initial fight, due to its fleeting nature, the second is rife for analysis. It proved to be amongst the most one-sided title bouts in recent memory and what’s more, the whole thing was scarcely believable. If the sight of Cigano’s disfigured face or judge’s scorecards which read 50-45, 50-43, 50-44 wasn’t enough proof for the Velasquez naysayers, they should consult the statistics.

Dos Santos had been taken down twice in his UFC career up to that point; once by Gabriel Gonzaga and once by Shane Carwin. Over the five rounds Velasquez took him to the mat 11 times, although the achievement is slightly tempered by the fact he attempted to do so on 33 occasions. The champion landed a total of 210 strikes, 111 of which were deemed significant, while Dos Santos only managed 66, however, all but nine of those were significant. That says it all really.

Following the loss Dos Santos revealed that he has been diagnosed Rhabdomyolysis, a breakdown of  muscle fibres that releases their contents into the bloodstream, due to overtraining in preparation for the fight. He also stated that he had been going through personal problems, which turned out be the end of his marriage, and that these issues had contributed to his lack-lustre performance.

Similar to the first fight, both men have fought once in the interim, on the same card coincidentally, at UFC 160. That night Velasquez stopped Big Silva within a round for the second time, and Junior finished Mark Hunt with a spectacular wheel kick.

Which brings us to this juncture, as the spin-doctors proclaim the greatest trilogy in MMA history is nigh. As entertaining as the first two fights were, tomorrow night will have to be seismic to surpass the triumvirate of wars Edgar and Maynard concocted.

In the build-up to UFC 166 Junior dos Santos has been uncharacteristically acerbic; frequently insulting the champion by questioning both his power and heart. Velasquez, unsurprisingly, has remained stoic. Perhaps Junior, who now claims to be 100%  healthy, is looking for any possible edge to ensure he prevails, nonetheless, he’s lost some of his likeability in the process.

Regardless of the outcome tomorrow night, the general consensus seems to be that these guys won’t or shouldn’t fight again in the foreseeable future. But due to the sparse landscape of the heavyweight division, particularly in terms of world class talent, they will most likely cross paths several more times in the not too distant future.

It’s not difficult to see why, either. Between the two of them they have soundly beaten a majority of the division’s heavy hitters, no pun intended. Let’s put it another way; Carwin and Lesnar have retired; Overeem is past his sell by date and has acquired a glass jaw; Roy Nelson has consistently been found wanting when facing world class opposition, and Daniel Cormier is most likely to move to light heavyweight, which leaves Travis Browne and Josh Barnett.

And, given that Velasquez and Dos Santos are 31 and 29, respectively, in heavyweight terms, very young, it will most likely take the arrival of Jon Jones to truly shake things up. Thus, as tomorrow night closes the book on what has been an amazing chapter, there’s still plenty of compelling reading to come.

By Tom Rooney – @oldmanrooney