UFC on Fox 9: Main Card Preview and Predictions

The Sleep Train Arena in Sacramento, California will play host for the UFC’s penultimate event of 2013 as Demetrious Johnson defends his flyweight strap for a third time against Joseph Benavidez, in what is, rather amazingly, not the first or even second most anticipated rematch of December, given what is yet to transpire in a fortnight’s time in Las Vegas.

In the co-main event one of the sport’s most seasoned and celebrated stars Urijah Faber takes on one of its youngest and brightest in Michael McDonald, for a showdown that is likely to decide the bantamweight division’s next No.1 contender.

Demetrious Johnson v Joseph Benavidez

When these two met in September of last year in the organisation’s inaugural flyweight title fight, Johnson won a razor-thin split-decision after five frenetic rounds and, like most bouts that end in such a manner, opinions were divided as to who deserved to walk away with the strap.

The statistics, according to fightmetric.com, validate the two judges who favoured Johnson; over the 25 minutes he landed a total of 99 strikes, compared to Benavidez’s 53, and completed five takedowns-three in the final round-while his opponent was 0/7 in that department.

Subsequently, Mighty Mouse has defended his title twice, by winning a unanimous decision against John Dodson and submitting John Moraga, in his most impressive performance since coming over from the WEC.

Benavidez has fought once more in the interim with similar success, taking a unanimous decision over Ian McCall and knocking out both Darren Uyenoyama and Jussier Formiga.

Benavidez, like all his Team Alpha Male cohorts, has benefitted hugely from the arrival of Duane Ludwig, and has added technical nous to his incredible punching power, which belies a man his size and where he has a marked advantage over the champion.

However, you cannot hit what you cannot catch. Mighty Mouse’s speed, footwork and elusiveness are as impressive as it gets, allowing him to dictate when and where exchanges take place.

His transitions, which vexed Benavidez considerably in the first bout, are fluid and seamless, so he has the luxury of putting opponents on their back in the blink of an eye. If he avoids the challenger’s power shots, particularly early on, it’s his to lose.

My Prediction: Johnson by unanimous decision.

Urijah Faber v Michael McDonald

In MMA circles Urijah Faber and Team Alpha Male have become synonymous with the city of Sacramento, so tonight he, Benavidez, Chad Mendes and Danny Castillo will have a fervent home crowd at their back for this homecoming of sorts.

Indeed, the California Kid has fought many times in the Sleep Train Arena throughout his storied career and at 34, this may be his last opportunity to ply his trade there.

In Michael McDonald, he faces a man 12 years his junior, but with a wealth of experience after six years as a professional. Both have come up short against Renan Barao in bids for the interim bantamweight title, but have bounced back in their ensuing endeavours.

Between his wrestling and submissions, Faber is an outstanding all round grappler in addition to be being a capable boxer, while McDonald is good off his back, has a more varied stand up game which is augmented by a devastating left hook.

Faber is wily enough to know not to trade with Mayday and will likely instigate clinches against the cage and when the time comes look for the takedown. Such is his top game, he can not only win, but finish the fight there, provided he does not over-extend himself and get caught.

If McDonald can keep Faber at a distance by picking him off with leg kicks a la Aldo, to set up his punches and utilize his power, then the biggest win of his career could be in the offing.

My Prediction: Faber by submission in Round 3.

Chad Mendes v Nick Lentz

Anderson Silva notwithstanding, Chad Mendes is arguably the best fighter in the UFC without a belt, which is why many , the odds makers included, feel that Nick Lentz is in serious trouble tonight. It’s not difficult to see why.

Since his sole career loss to Jose Aldo, Medes has won his subsequent four fights by KO or TKO,  most recently becoming the first man to finish Clay Guida in such a manner. Add that to prodigious athleticism and world class wrestling, and you’ve got close to the finished article.

Lentz is 3-0 since dropping to featherweight and, as evidenced by the nature of his 24 wins, is a well-rounded fighter, but he faces a staggering jump in competition in Mendes, who is ever-closer to another title shot which he is unlikely to let slip away.

My Prediction: Mendes by KO/TKO in Round 1.

Joe Lauzon v Mac Danzig

With his 12 fight night bonuses Joe Lauzon must be one of the most solvent fighters on the UFC roster and thanks to the reckless abandon with which he fights among its most popular. But staring down the barrel of a third straight loss all this counts for little and he’ll settle for just getting his hand raised.

Mac Danzig has lost seven of his 12 UFC fights since winning TUF 6, but has been retained because like Lauzon, he gives the fans what they want. If, however, he does not prevail tonight, his time in the UFC will probably come to an end. Thus, there is plenty at stake for both men, which should make for an incredible 15 minutes.

My Prediction: Joe Lauzon by submission in Round 3.

By Tom Rooney – @oldmanrooney