The long-awaited conclusion to the uncertainty that has permeated the welterweight division since Georges St. Pierre vacated his title last December hung in the balance for 120 agonising minutes last night, as the entire MMA world held its collective breath waiting to see if Johny Hendricks would make weight.
Thankfully, he did, but at what cost? Only time will tell. What is certain, however, is that by the end of business tonight in the American Airlines Centre in Dallas, a new champion will be crowned and, the strong likelihood is, the next No.1 contender will emerge. Remember folks; never leave your weighing scale unattended.
Johny Hendricks v. Robbie Lawler
Considering how many people felt that GSP was giving up a belt that Jonny Hendricks had fairly taken from him the previous month, and Robbie Lawler’s seismic performances since returning to the octagon, few could gripe when these two were chosen to contest the vacant title.
In their own unique ways, both are the antithesis to the fighting style adopted by GSP, which had disillusioned and, in some cases, downright bored a significant amount of fans. ‘Big Rig’ and ‘Ruthless’ have amassed respective knockout highlight reels throughout their careers, and certainly appear to have little regard for the subtleties of a path-of-least- resistance approach to winning. Then again, with such ferocious punching power, why would they?
For Hendricks, last night’s unexpected travails may have forced his hand in terms of expediting his game plan. Regardless of coming in at the requisite weight, he looked drained and gaunt, so a quick conclusion will be his most effective route to victory. Lawler, for his part, looked in fantastic shape yesterday, and will not be cringing at the thought of five rounds.
If a homerun is not forthcoming in the early goings, like against Condit, Hendricks will have to call on his world-class wrestling, but a far more aggressive top game will be required than the one showcased against the ‘Natural Born Killer’. Lawler is the more complete striker, and has a durable jaw, so it is not beyond the realm of possibility he will spend time on his back, yet the velocity of his opponent’s shot may well be diminished. His reaction to this may well determine the fight.
My Prediction: Lawler by KO/TKO in Round 3.
Carlos Condit v. Tyron Woodley
Carlos Condit has had his shares of highs and lows as of late; between losing his title fight to GSP, being debatably robbed of a decision against Johny Hendricks, before finishing Martin Kampmann with aplomb, there has definitely been a lack of consistency to his fortunes.
All of which, he says, have served to make him a better fighter. In Tyron Woodley, he faces a hungry, motivated foe, hoping to use him as a launch pad into the upper echelons of the division. In addition to having the physical dimensions of a super hero, Woodley possesses frightening knockout power and top-notch wrestling, the latter, of course, traditionally being Condit’s kryptonite.
That said, the New Mexico native is among the most complete strikers in the sport, has an unending gas tank and, perhaps most poignantly, a wealth of big fight experience. His ever expanding arrays of sweeps will, if need be, at least partially neutralise Woodley’s wrestling.
My Prediction: Condit by Unanimous Decision.
Myles Jury v. Diego Sanchez
On his last visit to Texas, Diego Sanchez partook in one of the most over-rated fights in recent memory but, to be fair, the third stanza in his war with Gilbert Melendez was probably the round of 2013. But that’s a different argument, for another day.
With his new oxygen-restricting mask and Mohawk, Sanchez now bears a striking resemblance to Tom Hardy’s Bane, though it’s hard to picture him as the villain in any story, such is the affection afforded to him by fans.
Myles Jury is unquestionably one of the most promising talents on the UFC roster, and going into the biggest fight of his career, yet to experience defeat. If he wishes to extend this streak, he must avoid being coaxed into one Sanchez’s patented bloodbaths, even if it costs him bonus money. The key for Jury is to stay composed and trust his superior technical nous.
My Prediction: Jury by Unanimous Decision.
Hector Lombard v. Jake Shields
Arguably the two most disappointing high-profile acquisitions made by the UFC in their quest for world domination, come face-to-face for a showdown that is strangely difficult to forecast.
Accurately described as a spoiler by Dan Hardy on BT Sports’ Beyond the Octagon, Jake Shields has an uncanny knack of almost willing his opponents to a standstill, while not pretty, it evidently has merit. However, his trademark America Jiu-Jitsu may not confound Lombard, an Olympic Judoka, with the desired effect. If their elite grappling does become irrelevant, then the Cuban has the marked advantage.
Lombard has dynamite in his hands but, despite Shields’ rudimentary stand-up, it’s exceedingly difficult to put him out.
My Prediction: Lombard by KO/TKO in Round 2.
Ovince St. Preux v.Nikita Krylov
Former college football standout Ovince St. Preux-a replacement for the errant Thiago Silva-takes on sometime heavyweight Nikita Krylov. It is a third UFC outing for both men, so finding themselves on a main card of such profile, could increase their profile significantly.
St. Preux is a superior athlete and more settled at 205lbs, suggesting the fight is his to lose, but as demonstrated in his last fight, Krylov, of Ukraine, can render an opponent unconscious in the blink of an eye.
My Prediction: St. Preux by KO in Round 1
Coverage starts in BT Sports at 2 am.
By Tom Rooney – @oldmanrooney
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