With the engravings still being etched on Conor McGregor’s featherweight title, it’s back to business immediately for the UFC this weekend as another fantastic event is on deck. Prospects, contenders and champions are all on show as the very last card of the year, UFC on Fox 17, takes place in the Amway Centre in Orlando, Florida.
Main Event – Rafael Dos Anjos vs. Donald Cerrone
Headlining the show will be the first title defence of lightweight champion Rafael Dos Anjos who takes on veteran fan-favourite Donald “Cowboy” Cerrone for the second time.
That title, though, is unusually not the biggest prize up for grabs. Instead a big money fight with the aforementioned featherweight king Conor McGregor will dominate the narrative all week. Win on Saturday, and the biggest payday of your life is just around the corner. Lose, and it’s back into a line of contenders which is growing ever longer and ever stronger day by day.
With that future considered and the title on the line, this one is absolutely huge and undoubtedly the biggest fight of both men’s careers so far.
As those careers go, Donald Cerrone has the longer and, despite no UFC title, probably a more lauded time as a professional. Starting out way back in 2006, Cerrone really made a name for himself in the now defunct WEC where he debuted in 2007.
Fights against the likes of Danny Castillo, Jamie Varner and Benson Henderson, along with the exceptional Cowboy gimmick, quickly made him a fighter – as well a personality – that the fans adored.
That love has carried over to the UFC and been enhanced by a anyone, any place, any time mentality. In his 18 UFC fights to date, Cerrone has won 15 and only lost to Dos Anjos, Anthony Pettis and Nate Diaz.
And although his whole career has been impressive, his latest run has been exceptional. Wins over the extremely dangerous Edson Barboza, hot prospect Myles Jury and former champion Benson Henderson have been highlights of an 8-fight winning streak since he lost to Dos Anjos. That run – along with a new found mental assuredness – has turned many doubters of his championship credentials around.
Speaking of turning doubters around, Rafael Dos Anjos has some experience of doing that. Entering the UFC way back in 2008 as an 11-2 prospect RDA’s potential was quickly questioned with losses to Jeremy Stephens and Tyson Griffin in his first two Octagon outings. And even though he bounced back with three consecutive wins, more losses to Clay Guida and Gleison Tibau had many, including myself, pinning Dos Anjos as somewhat of a career journeyman.
But then it all changed.
Since that loss to Tibau in November 2011 Dos Anjos has only tasted defeat once – to Khabib Nurmagomedov – in ten fights. That career resurgence has been thanks, in no small part, to a move to Rafael Cordeiro’s Kings MMA while a change in physique, which has questioned by many for its legitimacy despite a clean record, has also been a huge factor.
Nevertheless, wins over Cerrone, Evan Dunham Benson Henderson, Nate Diaz and Anthony Pettis – for the UFC title last time out – have turned Dos Anjos from an also-ran to a champion.
As mixed martial artists go these two are pretty different. Cerrone is a big, tall lightweight. He likes to fight at range, slam in leg kicks early, stick you with a jab and drive knees in through your defences. Of late he has improved drastically as a combination puncher and will set up power punches and kicks to the head before unleashing them. Also improved is his wrestling, both defensively and offensively, while on the ground he has a brilliant guard and is always dangerous with submissions.
Dos Anjos, conversely, is more of an in-your-face pressure fighter. The Brazilian isn’t the best striker in the world but he has developed a very useful high-output hitting game which suits his style. As a southpaw Dos Anjos has a sneakily powerful overhand left and his best shot is undoubtedly his right hook.
All of that, though, is merely a set up for his real strength. Dos Anjos is at his best when he makes it a close-in dogfight. He loves to push opponents to the cage, dirty box and drag them to the ground with a double leg or really by any means necessary. Once it hits the ground he has a dominant top game and will batter you with elbows and punches from the guard to make your night a misery.
When looking at how this fight might play out it’s pretty important to see how the first meeting went, even though both men have improved significantly since. In that fight Cerrone unusually started pretty well but was hurt by a big right hand late in round one, never really got back to his game and was beaten pretty convincingly by the pressure of RDA.
This time, he will need to start well again. Against someone like Dos Anjos it’s hugely important not to let him get on the front foot early. Cerrone needs to throw big numbers of leg kicks, he needs to let go of combinations and he needs to keep his back off of the fence at all costs. And if he does all that; it still might not work.
Expect Dos Anjos to come out fast and loose too. He’ll want to get Cerrone backing up early. To do that he’ll let go of big looping shots once he gets into range and stick Cerrone to the fence. If that happens, and continues to happen, he’ll win this fight.
That makes this one pretty easy to comprehend and we’ll probably know who’ll win this fight by the end of round one; as long as Dos Anjos comes in and has the cardio for five rounds like he did against Anthony Pettis.
If Cerrone can stay in open water he’ll have a huge chance of winning. If he gets his back up against the fence, unless he pulls out a big submission, he’ll probably lose. For me, the latter is more likely.
Miscellaneous Ramblings
After being spoiled with top-quality fights over the last few weeks there are even more brilliant bouts below the main event on Saturday. None more so than the co-main event between heavyweight powerhouses Alistair Overeem and Junior Dos Santos.
Since coming over to the UFC in 2011 Overeem, a legendary kickboxing and MMA champion, has had a surprisingly underwhelming Octagon career – going 4-3. Now, though, in the most top-heavy of divisions with two wins in a row he finds himself fighting for a possible shot at the heavyweight title. But that won’t be easy against Dos Santos, the former UFC champion who has won 11 of his 13 UFC fights and only lost to Cain Velasquez.
For many, this is a dream match-up. The best boxer in the heavyweight division against the best kickboxer. Dos Santos, the boxer, will be coming out fast and looking to test the often suspect chin of “The Reem”. Overeem, on the other hand, will have a well-established gameplan with new coach Greg Jackson. I wouldn’t be surprised to see him striking from range and adding in takedowns as the fight goes on.
With wars in all of his last four fights it wouldn’t be unfair to say Dos Santos might be a little more susceptible to damage too and that might help Overeem. All in all I’d expect this one to be pretty enjoyable with Overeem getting it done.
Outside of that there are a few more very good fights like Josh Samman vs. the returning Tamdan McCrory, Randa Markos vs. Karolina Kowalkiewicz, Myles Jury vs. Charles Oliveira and, most notably, Michael Johnson vs. Nate Diaz is a fight where I would hugely favour the athleticism, wrestling and power of Johnson to see him through.
FULL FIGHT PICKS
Rafael dos Anjos vs. Donald Cerrone – Think Dos Anjos’ pressure will be too much
Junior dos Santos vs. Alistair Overeem – I’m buying into the Overeem revolution here
Michael Johnson vs. Nate Diaz – Think Johnson dominates here to win a decision
Randa Markos vs. Karolina Kowalkiewicz – Markos via decision
Charles Oliveira vs. Myles Jury – Jury
C.B. Dollaway vs. Nate Marquardt – Dolloway
Sarah Kaufman vs. Valentina Shevchenko – Kaufman
Josh Samman vs. Tamdan McCrory – McCrory
Nik Lentz vs. Danny Castillo – Lentz
Cole Miller vs. Jim Alers – Alers
Leon Edwards vs. Kamaru Usman – Edwards
Hayder Hassan vs. Vicente Luque – Hassan
Luiz Henrique vs. Francis Ngannou – Henrique
BET OF THE WEEK
This week I’m going for an 13/2 accumulator of Jury, Markos, Dolloway, Kaufman and Johnson
START TIMES
Early Prelims – 8.30pm on UFC Fight Pass
Prelims – 10pm on BT Sport 2
Main Card – 1am on BT Sport 2
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