With the leftover turkey from Christmas still being used for sandwiches it’s back to action already for the UFC. This weekend it’s another big pay-per-view card as UFC 195 kicks off 2016 live from the MGM Grand in Las Vegas, Nevada.
In the headlining spot, two of the most popular fighters on the scene meet as Robbie Lawler defends his welterweight title against Carlos Condit.
A former interim holder of the belt himself, Condit has been a mainstay around the top of the 170 pound division for years. Knockout after knockout throughout his career had him labelled “The Natural Born Killer” but when he eventually did win the strap it was with a more defensive, intelligent gameplan as he out-pointed Nick Diaz with Georges St-Pierre injured.
When GSP returned Condit almost finished him with a headkick but was eventually on the wrong side of the judges’ decision. Since then it has been a topsy turvy few years with injuries and losses. That was until a well-timed win over Thiago Alves earned Condit this shot on Saturday when others were probably more deserving.
In the time since Condit last held the belt, it has been his opponent on Saturday night, Robbie Lawler, who has been the most impressive fighter in the division. And that comes after he lost to Johny Hendricks in a tight match-up for the vacant title following St-Pierre’s semi-retirement.
Amazingly, in the months after their first meeting, Hendricks was injured and Lawler went on a beat Jake Ellenberger and Matt Brown to earn himself an immediate rematch for the title. That fight ended in another razor thin decision but went to Lawler while, last time out, there were no judges necessary as he knocked out Canadian Rory MacDonald is the fight of 2015.
Now, kicking off 2016, we should have another classic on our hands.
Coming into this as the challenger, Carlos Condit will know he has a use everything in his arsenal to get his hands on that strap. That, more than likely, means winning this one on the feet. There, he is unbelievably skilled. As noted earlier Condit can fight to a strict gameplan or he can go out and look for the knockout. Either way, his attacks usually start with his legs.
Condit has extremely good kicks to the legs, body and head which are even more effective because of his length and where he launches them from. Behind that, the Jackson/Winkeljohn trained man throws a nice jab, big hooks and can move methodically in and out of range. On the ground Condit is also very dangerous, especially off of his back, but it’s the wrestling department in which his big weakness lays.
That was also once the case Robbie Lawler who now is about as crafty as they come. Starting out as somewhat of an aggressive hitter Lawler has developed his game over a long career
Now, he loves fighting in the pocket. Lawler thrives when he puts on the pressure, hand fights and throws combinations which aren’t always finishing moves, but add up over time. Also improved is his aforementioned wrestling, especially defensively, which was largely to thank for getting him the title.
His main attribute, though, is his toughness and grit. On paper, Robbie Lawler isn’t the most skilled, most athletic or strongest fighter in the welterweight division but he is the best at pulling through and winning. And when push comes to shove, that is indispensable.
You would expect this one to, largely, take place on the feet. Condit will attempt to establish his movement from range early while Lawler will walk him down, and keep walking him down.
In the first couple of rounds that movement of Condit will probably see him on top as he kicks and hits Lawler will his long limbs. Eventually, though, Condit will slow somewhat and Lawler will begin to catch him. Depending on how defensively well Condit does, as past Lawler opponents will know, that could end very badly. In the second half of the fight Condit will likely still be holding on to his gameplan as Lawler comes on strong and adds in more takedowns to steal rounds.
In the past, both men have been on the either side of close decisions and I think that’ll be the case again on Saturday. For me, Condit’s ability to keep light on his feet and strike from range is huge in this fight and I fancy him to nick the necessary three rounds.
After that, it’s all the way down to the Fight Pass prelims for the Irish interest on the night as Donegal’s Joseph Duffy finally gets to take on Dustin Poirier after their fight at UFC Dublin was scrapped due to a Duffy injury in training.
Following Conor McGregor’s featherweight championship win in December, it looks like Joseph Duffy is the next Irishman on a journey towards the top.
Now fighting out of Tristar gym in Montreal, Canada, Duffy had been a stand-out on the local scene, going 6-0 to start off his career. After the last of those wins, a submission victory over current UFC lightweight Norman Parke, Duffy ventured to America where he unsuccessfully tried out for “The Ultimate Fighter.”
Upon his return home, Duffy famously submitted Conor McGregor and won three fights in a row to follow that before losing his only bout to date against Ivan Musardo for the Cage Warriors title.
After that he successfully completed seven bouts as a boxer before returning to the Cage in August of 2014. Since then Duffy has four stoppages from four fights and begins 2016 with a top-15 ranking firmly in his sights.
In his way is Dustin Poirier, a talented veteran of the UFC and WEC. Born in Lafayette, Louisiana, Poirier trained under Tim Credeur in his early days before moving to Florida’s world renowned American Top Team. After winning seven on the spin to start his pro career, Poirier lost in his WEC debut against Danny Castillo but bounced back with wins over the likes of Josh Grispi (in his UFC and featherweight debut) and Max Holloway.
Although he was one of the top fighters in the world at 145 lbs, three losses in seven fights, the last of which came at the hands of Conor McGregor, made Poirier’s decision to move back up to his more natural weight of 155 lbs an easy one. There, he has two first round knockouts over Carlos Ferreira and Yancy Medeiros in the last year and comes into this fight in flying form.
As a fighter, Joseph Duffy just about has it all. Being a former pro, his boxing is some of the most crisp and technically sound in the UFC today. He throws wicked combinations through defences, adds in kicks high and low and attacks the body with a manic ferocity in all his fights. Outside of that, Duffy is also a pretty good wrestler while his Japanese ju-jitsu background also makes him very dangerous on the floor.
If it does go south, Poirier is also a very astute grappler who favours moves like the anaconda, d’arce and Peruvian necktie. Like Duffy, Poirier is also a very good fighter all around and will have no qualms about fighting wherever this goes. As a striker “The Diamond” is go-forward technical brawler who throws hard leg kicks and big shots with his hands which, sometimes, can cause him to take a few to a chin which has been questioned in the past.
In the Octagon on Saturday this one should be exciting all the way through. Expect a lot of jabs, hooks, crosses, kicks and nifty head movement from Duffy early as he comes out and tries to take the centre of the Octagon.
For Poirier, a patient start will be needed against the hard-hitting Tír Chonaill man. Expect him to throw an early succession of leg kicks and counters before he opens up as the fight grows. For Duffy the key is to feint, make Poirier miss and hurt him on the comeback. If Poirier can time Duffy he could have some success but if he ends up getting hit with counters it could be an early night.
Initially scheduled to be a five round fight, I think the three round distance will make this one more exciting and allow both men to open up a little more. If that is the case, I think the more technical, harder-hitting Duffy will come out on top.
Outside of those two this card isn’t up to the levels of recent PPV’s, but I suppose you couldn’t expect it to be. The heavyweight fight between Stipe Miocic and Andrei Arlovski could be a #1 contender bout but, if it doesn’t end early, has the makings of a drab, defensive affair. Albert Tumenov vs. Lorenz Larkin should make up for that while, most noteworthy on Saturday’s undercard is probably the return of bantamweight contended Michael McDonald after a long absence.
FULL FIGHT PICKS
Robbie Lawler vs. Carlos Condit – Condit squeaks the decision
Stipe Miocic vs. Andrei Arlovski – Miocic wins all three rounds
Albert Tumenov vs. Lorenz Larkin – Should be fun, I’ll take Tumenov
Diego Brandao vs Brian Ortega – Never rule out DB, but I’ll go Ortega
Abel Trujillo vs. Tony Sims – Trujillo needs to win this, I think be will
Michael McDonald vs. Masanori Kanehara – McDonald
Kyle Noke vs. Alex Morono – Noke
Justine Kish vs. Nina Ansaroff – Kish
Drew Dober vs. Scott Holtzman – Holtzman
Dustin Poirier vs. Joseph Duffy – Duffy gets the finish
Joe Soto vs. Michinori Tanaka – Soto
Edgar Garcia vs. Sheldon Westcott – Westcott
BET OF THE WEEK
This week I’m going for an even money double of Kish and Miocic
START TIMES
3am Main Card – BT Sport 2
1am Prelims – BT Sport 2
11.30pm Early Prelims – UFC Fight Pass
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