UFC 257 Betting Preview

The biggest star in the history of mixed martial arts, Conor McGregor, returns to action this Saturday night at UFC 257. The former two-weight champion will be taking on Dustin Poirier for the second time. In their first match-up, McGregor knocked out the American in round 1.

On average, McGregor is a -282 favorite over Dustin Poirier, who’s sitting at +229 to avenge his 2014 KO loss. These odds have changed drastically over the past week, and are expected to continue so fight week. Be sure to keep an eye on Sports Betting Dime who have all the top sites reviewed, for the best value and bonuses for UFC 257. Distilling the numbers, the betting market gives McGregor a 70.8% chance to win compared to just 29.2% for Poirier.

At their peak, McGregor would be an even bigger favourite here. The Irishman has only fought twice in MMA in the last four years and the biggest questions surrounding him are about whether he is as good as he once was. If he is close to the fighter he was when he dismantled Eddie Alvarez to win the UFC lightweight title, the -282 could look very smart money. If you fancy McGregor to win in the first round again, +187 is a favourable price.

For Poirier, he is unquestionably in the prime of his career. After moving up from featherweight, Poirier’s chin issues now seem to be a thing of the last. A submission loss to Khabib Nurmagomedov is his only defeat in the last four years, while he has won fights that have gone past the early rounds multiple times. If Poirier can weather the early storm, the price of +600 to win via decision could be worth a bet.

Elsewhere on the card, Michael Chandler makes his UFC debut against Dan Hooker. Hooker is somewhat surprisingly a -138 favourite. Chandler, who has beaten better fighters than Hooker despite having never fought in the UFC, is currently at a very interesting price of +110.

While at +150, I think the fight between Amanda Ribas and Marina Rodriguez to not go to a decision is a value bet.

If parlays are your thing a treble of McGregor, Chandler and Ribas is +368.

Podcaster, lead MMA writer and analyst for SevereMMA. Host of the SevereMMA podcast, out every Sunday. Economics and Mathematics graduate from UCC. Also write for Sherdog. Previously of hov-mma and fightbooth. As heard on 2FM, Red FM, Today FM and more. Follow me on twitter for updates @SeanSheehanBA and on Facebook Facebook.com/seansheehanmma