UFC 269: Oliveira vs Poirier

Headlining UFC 269 at the T-Mobile Arena in Las Vegas is the Lightweight Championship bout between Charles ‘Do Bronx’ Oliveira and Dustin ‘The Diamond’ Poirier. 

With the Ultimate Fighting Championship’s booming growth and the popularity of betting on the UFC, we thought that we’d give our take on how this highly anticipated match-up may go down.

Oliveira vs Poirier Betting Odds

Oliveira may be the one walking to the octagon wearing the strap, but (at the time of writing) he’s not the betting favorite. Do Bronx is currently around 6/4 with The Diamond hovering around 1/2. According to reports, there has been a lot of activity and interest on the fight, with a lot of bettors backing Oliveira for the win. The majority of customers have been choosing to back the fighter on one of several UFC apps that are now available in the market.

Of course, as a bettor, we want to determine where the value is in the market. More often than not, the belt holder goes into a championship fight as the favorite and considering Do Bronx is on a nine-fight win streak, his odds may look tasty for some last-minute punters. 

An interesting footnote is that he was the underdog against Kevin Lee (3 fights ago) and Tony Ferguson (2 fights ago), and only a very marginal favorite when he beat Michael Chandler for the belt at UFC 262. 

In the opposite corner, we have The Diamond. Looking at the fight objectively, without the interference of liking one fighter more than the other, we could argue that Poirier isn’t offering bettors much value at his current odds, given the potential dangers of this match. 

However, along with fighters like Nate Diaz, Dustin has become a real fan-favorite over the past five or so years, and this does impact the betting lines as it draws in more wagers from people simply betting with their heart. 

Oliveira vs Poirier Fight Preview

Even with the retirement of the undefeated champion Khabib Nurmagomedov, the lightweight division is still regarded by many as the deepest in the UFC. It’s hard to disagree with that, given both of the fighters heading into UFC 269 have been in the UFC for more than 10 years. Furthermore, there have been ups and downs for both men too, but finally, they reached the championship-level summit.

For some time, there was a narrative that Do Bronx didn’t have the mental strength to battle back from behind, but his performance against Chandler silenced many of those critics. He was rocked twice in that first round, and ‘Iron’ Mike threw some heavy elbows too. But Charles came out in the second and immediately caught Chandler on the chin with a left, and the ending came only a few seconds later.

Make no mistake, Oliveira has evolved into a supremely well-rounded fighter. He is dangerous on the mat, as his 14 submission victories (a UFC record) prove. However, he’s now knocked out three of his last five opponents, so he’s no pushover on his feet either.

With that said, we’d favor Poirier if he can keep the fight standing. This is a guy who is known to be one of the best boxers in the UFC, and his TKO victories by punches against Alvarez, Gaethje, Hooker, and McGregor (in the second of their three bouts) are case and point. Another danger for Oliveira is Poirier’s famed guillotine choke that he displayed against Khabib. Most likely, this will prevent Charles from shooting in early in the fight, which will give Dustin the edge. 

Oliveira vs Poirier Prediction

This bout has the potential to be a fight of the year contender. It literally could go either way, and both men have the tools to get the job done. If you look at the guys with whom they’ve shared the octagon in recent years, Poirier clearly has the resume to back up the bookmakers’ favorite tag. Yet, Oliveira has beaten everyone who Dana White has thrown at him since the start of 2018.

As we stressed above, the betting lines for this one could be a touch misleading as we think the fight will be closer than the odds suggest. Still, we are ever-so-slightly favoring Dustin’s experience from his blockbuster fights with Nurmagomedov and McGregor to see him through.

Our Prediction: Dustin Poirier via 4th round TKO (Punches)